severe-turbulence-has-increased-by-55-since-1979-thanks-to-climate-change-according-to-a-study
A recent study by researchers at the University of Reading shows that severe‑level clear‑air turbulence (CAT) has increased by 55% between 1979 and 2020 over major flight routes such as the North Atlantic. (agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com)
What the study found
Using four decades of atmospheric and satellite data, the authors documented that at a typical point over the North Atlantic, the annual hours of severe turbulence rose from 17.7 hours in 1979 to 27.4 hours in 2020 — a 55 % increase. Moderate turbulence increased by ~37 % and light turbulence by ~17 % in the same period. (The Guardian) The trend is also observed — though to varying degrees — in other busy air‑corridors including over the U.S., Europe and the South Atlantic. (research.reading.ac.uk)
Why climate change is blamed
The increase is attributed to warming of the troposphere and associated changes in the jet streams and wind shear. As the atmosphere warms (due to greenhouse‑gas increases), the difference in speed and temperature between air masses at altitude grows, thereby creating stronger wind shear which in turn can generate more CAT. (World Economic Forum) The study authors suggest this is consistent with climate change models which predicted that turbulence intensity and frequency would rise as the planet warms. (agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com)
Why this matters
For airlines, the rise in turbulence means increased wear‑and‑tear on aircraft, higher operating costs (for maintenance, fuel deviations, flight delays) and greater injury risks for passengers and crew. (AGU Newsroom) Moreover, because clear‑air turbulence occurs without visible clouds or storms, it is much harder to forecast and avoid. — posing a challenge for flight operations in a warming world. (World Economic Forum)
Looking ahead
The evidence suggests we are already seeing the effects of climate change on aviation safety and comfort. As global temperatures continue to rise, experts and the study’s authors expect further rises in CAT frequency and severity. This implies that mitigation (reducing emissions) and adaptation (improving turbulence forecasting, aircraft routing and design) will both be important. (research.reading.ac.uk)
In conclusion: the finding of a 55 % increase in severe clear‑air turbulence since 1979 is a clear signal that the impact of climate change is already affecting how rough and unpredictable the skies are.
If you like, I can pull together more details from the study (regional breakdowns, methodology, projections) and share them.
